Risk-to-Reward & Win-Rate Calculator
Discover the exact break-even win rate required for your trade setup and calculate your mathematical edge over a 20-trade sample.
Setup Inputs
✅ Your strategy has an edge of +20.0% above break-even.
The Myth of the 90% Win Rate
One of the biggest traps for beginner retail traders is obsessing over high win rates. In trading, win rate without risk-to-reward is completely meaningless. A trader with a 90% win rate who risks ₹10,000 to make ₹1,000 will be completely wiped out by two consecutive losing trades.
| Risk-to-Reward Ratio | Break-Even Win Rate | Result at 50% Win Rate (over 10 trades) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 : 1.0 | 50.0% | Breakeven (₹0 gain) |
| 1 : 1.5 | 40.0% | +2.5 R Profit |
| 1 : 2.0 | 33.3% | +5.0 R Profit |
| 1 : 3.0 | 25.0% | +10.0 R Profit |
Frequently Asked Questions
How do you calculate Expected Value (EV) in trading?
Expected Value represents the average amount you win or lose per trade over thousands of occurrences. The formula is: EV = (Win Rate × Reward) - (Loss Rate × Risk). As long as your EV is positive, the law of large numbers guarantees profitability over time.
Can I be profitable with a 40% win rate?
Yes, absolutely! If your average winning trade is at least 1.5 to 2 times larger than your average losing trade (1:2 R:R), a 40% win rate will produce substantial, compounding profits while suffering only minimal drawdowns.